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January 8, 2014
What Guild Nominees Say About Oscar Hopefuls

oscarsIt's at that point in time when movie pundits everywhere try their very hardest to predict what films will be blessed with an Academy Award nomination. Every year there are surprises that no one sees coming, like when the critically panned "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" somehow weaseled its way into Best Picture contention in 2011. It's wild cards like these that make the act of predicting seem futile...but it's a whole lot of fun, so we keep doing it! With all the major guilds - Screen Actors Guild, Directors Guild of America, Producers Guild of America, and American Society of Cinematographers - and the British Academy Film and Television Awards announcing their nominees recently, let's take a look at how these accolades could affect the Oscar race.

Note: I don't include the Writer's Guild of America here, not out of disrespect, but because due to their complex rules many films that are eligible for Oscars don't get nominated for WGA awards, making it nearly impossible to judge.

llewyn1) "Inside Llewyn Davis" Doesn't Stand A Chance

"Inside Llewyn Davis" is a remarkable, melancholy odyssey that soulfully blends folk music with human drama. Yet for some reason, the Coen brothers film has received almost no recognition during this awards season. Despite boasting a terrific ensemble cast led by Oscar Isaac, it received zero SAG nominations. Not making it onto the DGA list is disappointing, but not a travesty, as they only name five nominees and this year was a particularly strong movie year. More disconcerting is "Inside Llewyn Davis" not making the cut for the 10 PGA finalists. PGA nominees almost always get Best Picture nominations, with a couple movies getting swapped out in favor of others. Maybe this will let "Inside Llewyn Davis" slip in for a pity nomination. The only category that "Inside Llewyn Davis" seems to have a guaranteed nod is Best Cinematography, as both the BAFTAs and the ASC nominated it.

2) "Gravity" Is Officially More Than Just A Special Effects Juggernautsandra-bullock-says-filming-gravity-made-her-depressed

Alfonso Cuaron's "Gravity" captivated audiences with groundbreaking imagery and a pulse-pounding plot. It was always a given that cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki would earn a nomination for his astounding work, but it was yet to be seen if the film as a whole would be recognized as more than just a visual feast. Those questions have been answered and kicked away violently by the overwhelming support "Gravity" has received from guilds. Sandra Bullock, who carries most of the movie on her shoulders has snared both a SAG and BAFTA nomination, assuring her a spot on the Oscar list. Director Alfonso Cuaron was chosen as one of the five best directors by the DGA, as well as earning a coveted PGA nomination. It also found its way onto not one, but two "Best Film" categories at the BAFTAs: Best Film and Outstanding British Film. With the support of guilds, critics, and audiences, "Gravity" could be a very dangerous competitor come March.

american-hustle3) "American Hustle" and "12 Years A Slave" Are Still Neck and Neck

Even though "American Hustle" has pulled in a ton of momentum from general audience appeal, it still has not separated itself from early favorite "12 Years A Slave". Entering the weeks before guild nominations, everyone knew that "Hustle" and "Slave" were dogging for that top position. Now that all the nominees have been released...nothing has changed. It seems everywhere you look for "Hustle", you can find "Slave", and vice versa. Both have been nominated by the PGA; Both directors are up for the top prize at the DGA; Both films are nominated for the top honor at the BAFTAs, with both lead actors - Christian Bale and Chiwetel Ejiofor - earning BAFTA nods, too. The only separation that can be found is in the SAG nominations, where "Slave" earned four nominations and "Hustle" only received two, including one for Jennifer Lawrence. "Slave" was also the only one of the two to get a nomination from the ASC, but that isn't likely to affect Best Picture chances.

4) Matthew McConaughey is ForgivenFilm-Toronto Preview

"Forgiven for what?" you might ask. Take a look at his IMDb resume for everything between 1993 and 2011. That. He is forgiven for that. The name Matthew McConaughey had become a joke for a very long time. Hearing it would cause everyone in the immediate vicinity to say "all right, all right, all right" in the most cliche surfer dude accent possible. McConaughey became a synonym for shirtlessness and awful romantic comedies, and it seemed that he would go down in infamy as one of the least respected actors ever. Then, "Magic Mike" happened, and McConaughey changed the way we looked at him. In 2013, he starred in two movies that earned him Oscar buzz, "Mud" and "Dallas Buyer's Club". Now, he's been nominated for a SAG for the latter film and could be well on his way to an Academy Award nomination. Matthew "Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past" McConaughey could be an Oscar nominee by next week. Even the immortal Liza Minnelli praised McConaughey at a recent event, stating "If you don't win the Academy Award, I'm giving you mine."

BLUE-JASMINE5) "Blue Jasmine" Could Be A Legitimate Upset

Woody Allen's "Blue Jasmine" came out much earlier in the year, so it was possible that it would be forgotten by the time Oscar balloting came. But his "A Streetcar Named Desire" retelling apparently had much more staying power than I gave it credit for, and has found itself smack in the middle of some of the most important races. Cate Blanchett, who is always a threat to snag some trophies, appears as a nominee for both SAG and BAFTA awards. Her co-star, Sally Hawkins, also snuck into the Best Supporting Actress race by getting a BAFTA nod. While Allen wasn't recognized by the DGA, he did earn a WGA nomination (I know I said I wouldn't use WGA, but I feel it's important here.) Most importantly, "Blue Jasmine" has been given a chance to compete for Best Picture after being chosen by the PGA.

The Academy Awards will announce their nominees on January 16th. Tweet us @Stagebuddy and let us know what you think about our Oscar musings.

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Written by: Nicholas DeNitto
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