This Sunday (1/12), members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will congregate in the Beverly Hilton Hotel to rub elbows with celebrities, drink copious amounts of booze, and watch co-hosts Tina Fey and Amy Poehler present trophies. While the Golden Globes are widely considered the most prestigious awards ceremony leading up to the Oscars, it's important to keep in mind the difference between the two groups: while the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (who vote on the Oscars) is made up of 6,000 industry professionals (actors, writers, producers, designers, etc.), the HFPA is a group of about ninety overseas journalists. They've been accused in the past (and rightly so) of voting for celebrities they want to hang out with rather than actually nominating the best work of the year -- hence how Johnny Deep snagged a nom for the atrocious "Alice In Wonderland" in 2011. But to their credit, the HFPA does seem to be taking themselves more seriously this year. No one dreamed they would pass up the chance to hang with Oprah by snubbing her performance in "Lee Daniel's The Butler". So let's take a look at who they did nominate, and who we think they'll end up voting for.
Her - It's a relatively quiet film compared to other, splashier award-magnets this year, and one that critics universally adore. The HFPA will undoubtedly want to recognize Spike Jonze's quirky, modern love story, and this will probably be its only shot at an award.
American Hustle - David O. Russell's very American tale of greed and survival in the 1970s is quickly gaining steam as an awards favorite. If anyone could steal it from "Her", it would be this live-wire script full of both hilarity and pathos. One thing working against "Hustle" here is its improvisational spirit, which could make voters feel the script was less important than the performances/direction.
Lupita Nyong'o - It's really saying something that Nyong'o's character Patsey is easily the most heartbreaking part of "12 Years", which is all-around the most heartbreaking film of the year. The newcomer gave her besieged character a nuance and simplicity that was impossible not to ache for.
Jennifer Lawrence - Unlike Patsey, restraint is not even a word that Lawrence's character Rosalyn knows. This is certainly the more showy performance of the two, and the kind of un-self-conscious, scenery-chewing role that people love to vote for. Any other year, this would definitely be Lawrence's in the bag. But the fact that she just won Best Actress last year will likely make voters want to give newcomer Nyong'o a chance at recognition.
Jared Leto - The definition of a transformative performance, Leto's turn as Rayon, a transgender AIDS victim, has had critics raving for months. Leto is nigh-on unrecognizable for the majority of the film, disguising himself in wigs and makeup and kimonos (and a scarily skeletal frame). The only time you can even tell it's Leto is when Rayon dresses up as a man for a heartrending confrontation with her father. This is the kind of role awards were made for.
Michael Fassbender - It would be a shock to see anyone other than Leto take this one home, but Fassbender deserves a mention for his unhinged slave master. His menacing interactions with Chiwetel Ejiofor's Solomon were some of the most tense scenes put on film this year. A wildly unpredictable and terrifying performance from an actor who continues to prove he's one of the best of his generation.
Meryl Streep - I mean, come on. It's Meryl Streep. It's true that the HFPA didn't even nominate Oprah, but I still wouldn't bet against them awarding Ms. Streep, especially in such a viciously hilarious role. As Violet Weston, the pill-popping, emotionally abusive matriarch of an Oklahoma clan, Streep doesn't chew the scenery so much as devour it whole.
Amy Adams - Sydney, the faux-British con-woman whom Adams portrays in "Hustle", is the actress' strongest, fiercest character to date. Caught in the middle of an FBI scam, Sydney is unapologetically focused on her own survival, and isn't afraid to go after what she wants with a surprising savagery. And you have to admit she rocks that '70s style, employing plunging necklines to distraction.
Leonardo DiCaprio - Voters may be divided in how they feel about Martin Scorsese's three-hour-long drug-fueled opus, but they're fairly unanimous in their praise for DiCaprio's portrayal of Jordan Belfort, aka The Wolf himself. This unbalanced egomaniac would be prime material for any actor to sink his teeth into, and DiCaprio does so with aplomb. Don't be surprised to see him take home a trophy, especially considering he's arguably one of the most under-awarded actors of his caliber (he's won one Golden Globe in 2005 for "The Aviator" and has never won an Oscar).
Bruce Dern - Speaking of under-awarded actors... If anyone can steal this from DiCaprio, it will be Dern who, despite having worked in the industry for over half a century and appearing in acclaimed films like "Coming Home", has never won a single major prize. His role in "Nebraska" as the increasingly-senile Woody is one of his best, and the HFPA may want to take this chance to finally award his work.
Cate Blanchett - The biggest no-brainer of the ceremony. Watching Jasmine try desperately to cling to the fantasies of her former, privileged life after it comes crashing down around her is like watching a particularly grisly train wreck. It's painful and sad, but impossible to look away from. "Blue Jasmine" is Woody Allen's best film in years, and perhaps Blanchett's best performance...ever.
No one - Seriously, no one else stands a chance.
Chiwetel Ejiofor - As Solomon Northup, the historical figure whose life inspired "12 Years", Ejiofor is quietly brilliant. Kidnapped from his comfortable life in the North and sold into slavery in the South, Solomon must quickly learn what it takes to survive as a slave. Ejiofor's subdued performance allows us to see both Solomon's calm, pleasing exterior and his roiling inner turmoil. It's the kind of role that actors may spend their entire careers looking for, and Ejiofor was lucky enough to not only find it, but to nail it.
Matthew McConaughey - A career-best performance by a man known primarily for beefcake roles in romcoms just a few short years ago. As Ron Woodruff, the homophobic rodeo cowboy who finds out he has AIDS, McConaughey is a revelation. Who knew he had it in him? The actor shed fifty pounds, along with any vanity, for this performance, and it paid off.
Alfonso Cuarón - Cuarón spent years developing new technologies sufficient enough to capture the beauty and danger of outer space, as well as crafting a compelling-but-streamlined story that would capture our hearts, minds and imaginations. Watching "Gravity" is as close as most of us will get to being in space, and the HFPA should award the director for committing himself so fully to creating a unique experience that reminds us why we go to movies in the first place: to be completely submersed in a fictional world to the point of forgetting the real one around us for ninety blissful minutes.
Steve McQueen - No revolutionary technology was needed to craft "12 Years", but that doesn't make its emotional impact any less impressive. McQueen's harsh and uncompromising take on such a sensitive subject resulted in a film that's the definition of essential viewing. It's ironic but not surprising that it took a non-American to make the definitive film on American slavery.
American Hustle - Russell's comedic crime caper has picked up steam in the past few weeks, dominating awards conversation and landing on many predictions lists. It would be a shock to not see it take home this prize. Critics and audiences alike loved both Russell's previous films ("Silver Linings Playbook", "The Fighter") and "Hustle" combines the main casts of both those films into one unstoppable all-star juggernaut.
Nebraska - "Her" is too indie, "Llewyn Davis" hasn't had enough awards chatter, and "Wolf" is too divisive. If anyone steals this from "Hustle", it will be the contemplative family road trip drama from critically-acclaimed director Alexander Payne (also of "The Descendants", "Sideways" and "About Schmidt").
Gravity - This one's a tough call. It could really go either way between "Gravity" and "12 Years A Slave". One's a flashy sci-fi epic filled with eye-popping special effects; the other is a brutal, introspective look at the evils lurking in our country's past filled with arresting performances. "12 Years" is the more typical awards fare, but don't count out "Gravity"s ability to amaze. And this is the HFPA we're talking about, after all. It wouldn't be the first time in Golden Globes history a special effects-driven sci-fi flick beat out a small, intense drama about a period of conflict in American history. I'm speaking, of course, about 2010, when "Avatar" won Best Drama over "The Hurt Locker" and "Gravity" is a much better film than "Avatar", so don't be surprised to see Cuarón's space masterpiece win out.
12 Years A Slave - Like I said, could go either way.
