The 86th Annual Academy Awards are fast approaching, which means it's time to start making our predictions for who will be taking home the shiny gold man. Before the ceremony is broadcast on Sunday, March 2nd (you can watch the telecast on ABC starting at 8pm ET), we'll be examining every major category and ranking each nominee on the likelihood they'll hear their name called. Today’s category: Best Original Screenplay!

Previously: Best Adapted Screenplay

5. “Dallas Buyers Club” by Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack

This affecting film about the AIDS crisis in the South has not just one, but two acting categories nearly locked up and also managed to score a somewhat surprising Best Picture nod. With so many strong contenders this year, you can expect the Academy voters to spread the love around, so the near-certainty of “Dallas” picking up trophies elsewhere probably hurts its chances here -- especially since the script wasn’t exactly the strongest aspect of the film anyway.

4. “Nebraska” by Bob Nelson

Critics loved this subdued father/son road trip drama, although it’s possible that it will get lost in the shuffle of its far splashier competitors. That said, don’t entirely count out a film directed by an Oscar favorite (Alexander Payne), starring a widely respected actor at the end of his career (Bruce Dern) that landed on many Top Ten lists of the year. Those voters who felt alienated by the technology-obsessed future world of “Her”, or exhausted by the relentless tempo of “Hustle”, or are scared to vote for an Allen film after the recent controversy surrounding the director, may find solace in this quiet gem.

3. “Blue Jasmine” by Woody Allen

Allen has 24 Oscar nominations to his name, including three wins for writing (for “Annie Hall”, “Hannah And Her Sisters”, and most recently for 2011’s “Midnight In Paris”). It’s hard to totally discount such a massive juggernaut -- although it’s true that he’s lost far more times than he’s won. But “Jasmine” is considered by many to be his best film since 2005’s “Match Point”, and Cate Blanchett is the favorite to win Best Actress for her performance as the titular Jasmine, so Allen certainly stands a chance. Will voters be afraid that casting a vote in favor of his movie will be perceived as casting a vote in favor of (alleged) child molestation? It’s unclear how recent controversies will affect his film’s chances at taking home trophies, but there are stronger competitors in the field this year anyway.

2. “American Hustle” by David O. Russell & Eric Warren Singer

“Hustle” took the awards circuit by storm after it premiered late last year, racking up rave reviews and shiny trophies alike. It’s one of three major contenders for Best Picture at this year’s ceremony, so with that momentum behind it, it’s a strong possibility that the film could score a win for its energetic, unpredictable screenplay. The biggest obstacle Russell and Singer face in getting their script recognized is the improvisational tone of the film -- some voters may view the words as less important than the performances.

1. “Her” by Spike Jonze

Jonze’s pseudo-sci-fi-romance is the film that beat “12 Years A Slave” in the Golden Globes’ combined Screenplay category. Couple that with wins from the Writers Guild and the Critics’ Choice Awards, and you have the makings of a safe bet. The only major screenplay award “Her” hasn’t taken home is the BAFTA, where “American Hustle” took the prize -- but only because “Her” wasn’t even nominated. Critics loved Jonze’s film, but the director and star Joaquin Phoenix both lost out on noms in overcrowded categories, and Scarlett Johansson’s voice-only performance was deemed ineligible for consideration, so Jonze’s creative screenplay is the film’s only chance at recognition. Don’t expect the Academy voters to pass up the opportunity to honor “Her” and its timely, tender love story.

Tomorrow: Best Supporting Actress

Who do you think will win Best Original Screenplay? Tweet us @Stagebuddy to announce your pick!