The 86th Annual Academy Awards are fast approaching, which means it's time to start making our predictions for who will be taking home the shiny gold man. Before the ceremony is broadcast on Sunday, March 2nd (you can watch the telecast on ABC starting at 8pm ET), we'll be examining every major category and ranking each nominee on the likelihood they'll hear their name called. Today’s category: Best Supporting Actress!
5. Julia Roberts, “August: Osage County”It’s a pity that “August” has been taking so much flak from so many critics for its stuffy adaptation and over-the-top histrionics, because Roberts’ turn as tortured daughter Barbara is probably her best performance playing so far out of type. Her Barbara is a damaged, frustrated, combative woman who’s miles away from Roberts’ star-making turns in romantic comedies like “Pretty Woman” and “Steel Magnolias”. But critical reception to the film itself was too lukewarm to muster up enough support for a win.
4. Sally Hawkins, “Blue Jasmine”As the surprise nominee in this category, essentially ousting Oprah Winfrey for her role in “Lee Daniels’ The Butler”, Hawkins should be honored just to be nominated. Granted, her performance as Jasmine’s put-upon sister is terrific -- but it simply has no hope of competing against the two titans that have been dominating this race all season.
3. June Squibb, “Nebraska”Squibb, a longtime stage actress, stole hearts and inspired laughter as the feisty and foul-mouthed Kate. She’s irreverent but also loving, crude but fiercely protective of her family. On paper, the 84-year-old actress doesn’t have a prayer of winning...but the top two contenders are so incredibly neck-and-neck that it’s not out of the realm of possibility they might split the vote, allowing Squibb’s hilarious performance to squeak between them.
2. Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle”As boozy, lonely housewife Rosalyn, Lawrence once again proved why she’s the most promising actress of her generation. For many, she was the most exciting part of “Hustle”, which is saying something, considering how many eclectic and dynamic performances there were in that film. The biggest thing Lawrence has working against her is that she just won Best Actress last year for “Silver Linings Playbook” (also by “Hustle” director O. Russell). In an ideal world, trivia like that wouldn’t have an impact on voters’ decisions, but it often does. If she takes home the trophy, she’ll be only the sixth person in history to win acting Oscars in back-to-back years. No small feat for a 23-year-old...
1. Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years A Slave”You could practically flip a coin to determine which box to check here. Nyong’o (as beleaguered slave Patsey) and Lawrence have been winning Supporting Actress awards in practically even numbers, with Nyong’o winning the prize at the Screen Actors Guild and Critics’ Choice Awards, and Lawrence taking the prize at BAFTA and the Golden Globes. The latter two ceremonies are definitely the more prestigious of the four, which might make it seem like Lawrence has the edge. But there are few other factors that must be factored in. First, there’s no overlap in the voting bodies for the Globes and the Oscars, so Lawrence’s win there has no direct impact on her chances here. Secondly, Nyong’o won the SAG Award, which means she has the backing of her acting peers, and actors make up the largest block of Academy members. Thirdly, as stated before, Lawrence would be a repeat winner, which might encourage some voters to give newcomer Nyong’o a chance to shine instead. And finally, when choosing between a comedy and a drama for an Oscar win...always go with the drama. (It’s no secret that the Academy prefers the serious to the funny.) All of this points to a win for Nyong’o -- but barely. It’s the closest acting race of the night, and don’t be surprised to see it go either way.
Who do you think will win Best Supporting Actress? Tweet us @Stagebuddy to announce your pick!
