This coming Sunday (Sept. 22), lovable star of the stage and screen Neil Patrick Harris will host the 65th Primetime Emmy Awards (you can watch them on CBS starting at 8pm ET). While the ceremony itself is sure to be a star-studded blast, half the fun is the speculation in the days leading up to the big event. So we've watched all the shows, studied the opinions of industry insiders, and put together our First Annual StageBuddy Emmy Predictions! Today we'll discuss the five major Drama categories. (Be sure to check back tomorrow for our Comedy predictions.)
• Breaking Bad (AMC)
• Downton Abbey (PBS)
• Game Of Thrones (HBO)
• Homeland (Showtime)
• House Of Cards (Netflix)
• Mad Men (AMC)
Breaking Bad. "Downton Abbey" feels like a prestigious drama because of its period setting, British accents, and Dame Maggie Smith, but in reality the show is too sudsy to take home the night's top prize. "Game Of Thrones" is widely admired for its scope and ambition, but it's a fantasy and Emmy voters rarely go for genre fare. "Homeland" is a possibility -- it is the show that finally dethroned "Mad Men" after four years running, but critics and audiences alike generally agreed that the second season was more uneven than the first. "House Of Cards" being nominated will have to be award enough for fledgling competitor Netflix. And the reign of "Mad Men" is officially over, paving the way for a surefire "Breaking Bad" win. Season 5(A) definitely deserves the award on its own merits, although it will undoubtedly be helped by the fact that it's the only nominee that currently has a season in progress, ensuring that the show is fresh in voters' minds.
Homeland. Emmy voters are notorious for latching onto a show and voting for it over and over again, so even though the second season might not have been as good as the first, many may vote for it merely out of habit.
Breaking Bad. One of the rare shows on television that has gotten better every season. Some of the show's best moments were from this season, including the magnet heist, the train robbery, and of course, that final cliffhanger.
"Hannibal" (NBC). For the second year running, the Outstanding Drama category has been dominated by cable and subscription channels. (The last network show to get a nomination was CBS's "The Good Wife" in 2011.) So voters could've thrown a bone to the best new show of last season and the best drama on network television, period: Bryan Fuller's gorgeously gory adaptation of the Richard Harris novels. It's one of the most disturbingly captivating shows to come along in a while, and it shows there's still hope for network dramas.
• Hugh Bonneville ("Downton Abbey")
• Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad")
• Jeff Daniels ("The Newsroom")
• Jon Hamm ("Mad Men")
• Damian Lewis ("Homeland")
• Kevin Spacey ("House Of Cards")
Kevin Spacey. Spacey turned in a gripping performance as Frank Underwood, the deliciously amoral House Majority Whip. Netflix will miss out on the night's top prize, but Emmy voters won't miss the opportunity to make history by giving at least one award to the Emmy-virgin subscription service. Plus, don't underestimate the power of a Hollywood celebrity "slumming it" on the small screen.
Damian Lewis. He won last year, and voters might be keen to repeat history. It doesn't hurt that the episode he submitted for consideration was "Q&A", largely considered the best episode of the whole season, which centers around an intense, extended interrogation scene between Lewis and Claire Danes that had viewers holding their collective breath.
Bryan Cranston. He's already been handed the statue three times (2008-2010), then was beat out by Kyle Chandler ("Friday Night Lights") and Lewis. Once a run's been interrupted, it's hard to get back on track. If he does win again, it will be next year for the final season.
John Noble ("Fringe"). It's no surprise that "Fringe", one of the best science-fiction shows in television history, was continually ignored by Emmy voters -- it is sci-fi, after all. But that's no excuse for ignoring the stellar work put in by Noble for five years running as mad-but-endearing scientist Walter Bishop, whose efforts to repair his broken relationship with his son were the emotional heart of a trippy show. This was their last chance to recognize his body of work, and they let it slip by. If you could watch his last scene in the series finale without shedding tears, then you're made of stone. (Note: It's possible that John Noble would've competed as a Supporting Actor, but we'll never know because they never nominated him.)
• Connie Britton ("Nashville")
• Claire Danes ("Homeland")
• Michelle Dockery ("Downton Abbey")
• Vera Farmiga ("Bates Motel")
• Elisabeth Moss ("Mad Men")
• Kerry Washington ("Scandal")
• Robin Wright ("House Of Cards")
Claire Danes. Her show may have declined in quality, but her performance did not. Audiences are still captivated by her honest, painful portrayal of a brilliant woman with bipolar disorder. (She also unsurprisingly submitted "Q&A" for consideration.)
Kerry Washington. If the networks have a prayer of winning a prize in the Drama category, it's this one. "Scandal" is one of TV's buzziest shows, and Washington delivers a consistently strong central performance in an often silly show. Plus, she's the first African American woman to be nominated for a lead Emmy since Cicely Tyson for NBC's "Sweet Justice" in 1995 (18 years ago), and if she won she would be the first African American woman ever to win the award. Will the Emmy voters be able to resist that historical possibility?
Vera Farmiga. "Bates Motel" is an underrated gem of a drama that premiered over on A&E in the spring. Farmiga ("The Departed", "Up In The Air") is stunning as Norma Bates, the mother of future-psycho Norman. Their nigh-on-incestuous relationship is simultaneously icky and compelling, and her portrayal of the unstable, infamously awful mother is flawless. You can't help but root for her, even as she makes horribly insane decisions.
Tatiana Maslany ("Orphan Black"). The only possible explanation for Emmy voters ignoring Maslany's performance as seven identical but distinctly unique clones is because she must have been so good they actually thought a different woman played each character.
• Jonathan Banks ("Breaking Bad")
• Bobby Cannavale ("Boardwalk Empire")
• Jim Carter ("Downton Abbey")
• Peter Dinklage ("Game Of Thrones")
• Mandy Patinkin ("Homeland")
• Aaron Paul ("Breaking Bad")
Mandy Patinkin. Definitely the toughest race in the Drama category to call. Cannavale delivered a delightfully unhinged performance as gangster Gyp Rosetti, but the show's lack of other nominations will probably doom his chances. Dinklage's fan-favorite portrayal of the clever and sympathetic Tyrion Lannister is GOT's best chance to nab a statue, but even he may find himself outmatched here. Both Banks and Paul gave series-best performances, but they may split the "Breaking Bad" vote, resulting in a win for Patinkin, who is largely responsible for anchoring an occasionally-messy season with his gruff, no-nonsense Saul.
Aaron Paul. If the "Breaking Bad" vote doesn't get split between Paul and Banks, then Paul could walk away with this award for the third time.
Aaron Paul. His lovable druggie Jesse has always been the emotional and moral center of the show as Cranston's Walt spiraled deeper and deeper into his role as evil meth-king Heisenberg. It's shocking to think Jesse was supposed to be killed off at the end of the first season -- a fate only changed due to the conveniently timed Writers' Strike of 2007-2008. What would "Breaking Bad" be today without him?
Corey Stoll ("House Of Cards"). Stoll won legions of fans and then broke their hearts as struggling alcoholic and U.S. Representative Peter Russo. Watching him be manipulated, used and discarded by Spacey's power-hungry Frank was brutal -- but only because Russo made it so easy for us to fall in love with a boozy, womanizing cad who was constantly struggling (futilely) to better himself.
• Morena Baccarin ("Homeland")
• Christine Baranski ("The Good Wife")
• Emilia Clarke ("Game Of Thrones")
• Anna Gunn ("Breaking Bad")
• Christina Hendricks ("Mad Men")
• Maggie Smith ("Downton Abbey")
Maggie Smith. How can you not vote for Dame Maggie Smith? She never fails to delight, landing zinger after zinger with flawless comedic timing. She's won two years in a row now and I wouldn't want to be the one betting against Professor McGonagall winning her third trophy.
Anna Gunn. If Emmy voters do feel brave enough to risk the wrath of the Dowager Countess, they may decide to award Anna Gunn's superb work as Skyler, Walter's hostage wife and reluctant business partner. This is, however, only the second year that the voters have recognized Gunn's work at all, so they may consider her nomination to be her award.
Anna Gunn. Gunn has an incredibly thankless job. "Breaking Bad" does a great job of making its audience continue to root for Walt even as he commits heinous atrocities. Therefore Skyler, as the voice of reason and Walt's constant antagonist, makes us feel bad for liking him. This has created a huge backlash against not only her character, but the actress herself. This is ridiculous, of course -- Gunn is pitch-perfect as Skyler, and she's been getting better every year.
Michelle Fairley ("Game Of Thrones"). Emmy voters missed their last chance to nominate Fairley as Catelyn, the quiet-but-strong matriarch of the Stark clan. Hers isn't a particularly showy role in a cast filled with larger-than-life characters, but her very human struggles are what made her so relatable and down-to-earth. She only ever wanted what was best for her children, and the heartbreaking conclusion to her story made for one of the best episodes of television all year.
What show do you think will take home Outstanding Drama? Which actors are you rooting for to win the big awards? Who do you wish had been nominated? Tweet us @StageBuddy to let us know!
