The 86th Annual Academy Awards are fast approaching, which means it's time to start making our predictions for who will be taking home the shiny gold man. Before the ceremony is broadcast on Sunday, March 2nd (you can watch the telecast on ABC starting at 8pm ET), we'll be examining every major category and ranking each nominee on the likelihood they'll hear their name called. First up: Best Adapted Screenplay!

5. "Before Midnight" by Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke & Richard Linklater

This series of films from director Linklater (including 1995's "Before Sunrise" and 2004's "Before Sunset") are always critical favorites, but rarely the kind of films that garner a ton of awards recognition. "Sunrise" was virtually ignored by every voting body, and while "Sunset" did earn an Oscar nom, it went home empty handed. Even though “Midnight” landed on many critics' Top Ten lists last year, don't count on it breaking that tradition, especially since A) it’s the only film here not also nominated for Best Picture, and B) it’s the only screenplay in this category that’s fiction -- we all know how much the Academy loves films that are based on true stories. The nomination alone will have to be award enough for “Midnight”.

4. "The Wolf Of Wall Street" by Terence Winter

Given how divisive Scorsese's latest crime epic was with critics ("Wolf" has the lowest Rotten Tomatoes score of all nine Best Picture nominees with 77%), everyone involved should be pleased enough with the surprising number of nominations the film managed to scrape up (including Picture, Director, Actor and Supporting Actor). While its relatively small but undeniably fervent fanbase was enough to get to the film recognized more than anyone expected, don't count on it being sizable enough to actually earn the film any trophies.

3. "Captain Phillips" by Billy Ray

Premiering in the first half of October, “Phillips” had the earliest release date of any film nominated for Best Picture this year -- other than “Gravity”, which came out one week earlier, but is the more memorable of the two films for many reasons. October may not seem like that long ago, but to Academy voters, it’s basically a lifetime. So many films have premiered and awards ceremonies have been thrown since then. Perhaps that’s why “Phillips”, so admired when it debuted, failed to score some key nods (it’s notably absent in the race for Director and Actor, two fields where it stood a good chance of earning a nomination). Some may appreciate the real-life accuracy and masterful tension of the screenplay, but unfortunately those are two attributes shared by a film far more present in voters’ minds (see #1).

2. "Philomena" by Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope

If there was a film that stood a chance to unseat the #1 choice here, it would be this heart-wrenching true story of an elderly woman searching for the son she was coerced into giving up for adoption decades earlier. Coogan and Pope’s script (the former of whom also costars in the film) is a sensitive and nuanced affair that evokes strong emotions without dipping into manipulative melodrama. “Philomena” pulled an upset at last weekend’s BAFTA awards (aka the British Oscars), taking home the Adapted Screenplay prize over “12 Years”. Of course, “Philomena” did have the advantage there of being a very British film, so don’t necessarily expect a repeat upset at the Academy Awards.

1. "12 Years A Slave" by John Ridley

One of the three major frontrunners for the Best Picture trophy is also the favorite for the Adapted Screenplay award. The real-life story, the weighty subject matter, the memorable characters and the expertly-built tension all give “12 Years” the edge. Ridley also took home the prize for this category at both the Critics’ Choice Awards and the Writers Guild Awards. However, it’s far from a sure thing: he did miss out at the BAFTAs (see above) and at the Golden Globes. But at the Globes, all writers compete in one condensed category, and Ridley lost to the frontrunner for the Original Screenplay Oscar (more on that tomorrow), so it’s hard to hold that particular loss against him. You can expect Academy admiration for “12 Years” to carry him through to victory here.

Tomorrow: Best Original Screenplay

Who do you think will win Best Adapted Screenplay? Tweet us @Stagebuddy to announce your pick!