The 86th Annual Academy Awards are fast approaching, which means it's time to start making our predictions for who will be taking home the shiny gold man. Before the ceremony is broadcast on Sunday, March 2nd (you can watch the telecast on ABC starting at 8pm ET), we'll be examining every major category and ranking each nominee on their likelihood to hear their name called. Today’s category: Best Director!
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
5. Martin Scorsese, "The Wolf Of Wall Street"Over three decades of directing modern classics would pass before the Academy finally deigned to give Marty a statuette for 2006's "The Departed" -- still the only Oscar one of cinema's greatest directors has managed to earn. And while it was great to see him take home that award, many viewed it as a consolation prize for all the times he didn't win. This is only Scorsese's second nomination since then (after one for 2011's "Hugo"). It took 33 years after he burst onto the scene with "Mean Streets" to finally win; there's no way the Academy will be handing him another award so soon, especially for a film as divisive as "Wolf". It was surprising enough to see him get a slot over other strong contenders like Paul Greengrass ("Captain Phillips"), Spike Jonze ("Her") and the Coen Brothers ("Inside Llewyn Davis"). Scorsese will just have to take a backseat Sunday night.
4. Alexander Payne, "Nebraska"Payne directed by far the most subdued of the films recognized here. The director of the 2012 ceremony's almost-Best-Picture-winner "The Descendants" undeniably deserves his nomination here. But "Nebraska" is more likely to be remembered for its indelible performances, moving screenplay and stark black-and-white cinematography than for any specific directorial flourishes. And, not having directed one of the three frontrunners for Best Picture, Payne's pretty much out of the running anyway.
3. David O. Russell, "American Hustle"This year's Best Picture race is a fairly even match between three stellar films. Since Best Director often goes hand-in-hand with the top prize, it's extremely safe to assume that this award will go to either Russell, McQueen or Cuarón. But Russell will likely suffer from a similar dilemma that Payne does -- the things about "American Hustle" that stick in your memory are the dynamite performances and the groovy, cleavage-baring costumes. Audiences loved "Hustle", but Russell will have to settle for also-ran.
2. Steve McQueen, "12 Years A Slave"If anyone is going to give our #1 pick a run for his money, it's the director of the year's most affecting film. Much has been made of the fact that it took a non-American to finally make the definitive movie on American slavery, and it's true. McQueen, who is British, tackled the sensitive material with an unflinching honesty that most American directors would have shied away from. It lays bare the ugly truth in our country's past, while simultaneously celebrating the indomitable spirit of our people. McQueen expertly straddled the line between making a hugely important "issue" movie and a crafting deeply personal story of one man's harrowing journey. Critics loved "12 Years"...but did they love it enough to unseat the clear frontrunner?
1. Alfonso Cuarón, "Gravity"At last year's Oscars, the man who took home the trophy for Directing had helmed a technologically impressive and eye-poppingly beautiful film that told a perilous tale of one person's fight for survival in a hostile environment. Expect to have an intense feeling of déjà vu this weekend. I'm speaking, of course, about Ang Lee, who won the award for "Life Of Pi". That film has clear parallels to "Gravity", and the Academy will likely give Cuarón the statuette for many of the same reasons. The Director and Picture prizes are usually analogous (unless the director of the Best Picture winner wasn't even nominated, like Ben Affleck's snub for "Argo" last year), but with no clear frontrunner for Picture this year, voters are free to pick whichever director they desire. And in an open field, they're most likely to give the award to the man they perceive as having had the most difficult job. Cuarón, who literally spent years inventing new technology and painstakingly recreating the physics of outer space, has inarguably earned that honor. After Jared Leto for Supporting Actor and Cate Blanchett for Actress, Cuarón for Director is the safest bet of the night. He has won literally every major award leading up to Sunday's ceremony (Golden Globe, BAFTA, Directors Guild, you name it), and soon he'll have an Oscar to add to his collection.
Who will win Best Director? Tweet us @Stagebuddy to announce your pick!
