The 86th Annual Academy Awards are fast approaching, which means it's time to start making our predictions for who will be taking home the shiny gold man. Before the ceremony is broadcast on Sunday, March 2nd (you can watch the telecast on ABC starting at 8pm ET), we'll be examining every major category and ranking each nominee on their likelihood to hear their name called. Today’s category: Best Actress!
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
5. Meryl Streep, “August: Osage County”This is Queen Meryl’s eighteenth Oscar nomination. Yes, you read that correctly -- 18th!! But even our most beloved screen actress had to wait 29 years after her win for “Sophie’s Choice” before she finally took home another statuette for “The Iron Lady” in 2012. There’s no way she’s going to be getting another one so soon, especially for a film as lukewarmly received as “August”. It’s rare for Streep to make a misstep, but many critics decried her turn as terrorizing Midwestern matriarch Violet Weston as scenery-chewing histrionics. It was shocking enough that she managed to edge out Emma Thompson (for “Saving Mr. Banks”) for the fifth slot; she has a snowball’s chance in hell of actually winning.
4. Sandra Bullock, “Gravity”“Gravity” amazed and thrilled audiences everywhere, but that was due more to the technical wizardry than the acting. That’s not meant to belittle Bullock’s talent -- as imperiled astronaut/grieving mother Ryan Stone, Bullock arguably delivered a more compelling performance here than she did in the role that won her an Oscar (for 2009’s “The Blind Side”). And yet as terrific as she was, she was overshadowed by the awe-inspiring special effects. And with the film sure to be winning many trophies, Academy voters will want to spread the love a bit and honor other movies they enjoyed as well.
3. Judi Dench, “Philomena"As an Irishwoman struggling to find her long lost son after being coerced into giving him up for adoption decades earlier, Dench is simultaneously heartbreaking and hilarious. Unfortunately she doesn’t stand much of a chance against the seemingly unstoppable force at #1...until you remember the man behind her film: Harvey Weinstein. Weinstein is an Oscar juggernaut, thanked more times in acceptance speeches than God. But this year he only has two dogs in the race: “Philomena” and “August: Osage County”. Since “August” missed out on a Best Picture nom and was generally dismissed by critics, you can count on Weinstein putting his full campaigning weight behind Dench. It still seems unlikely that she could win, but remember that Harvey Weinstein is personally responsible for one of the most shocking upsets in Oscar history, when he managed to get his “Shakespeare In Love” chosen as Best Picture over “Saving Private Ryan” in 1999.
2. Amy Adams, “American Hustle”As the enigmatic grifter Sydney Prosser, Adams feels like the only real competition our #1 slot has for the trophy. She won the Best Actress (Comedy) award at the Golden Globes, and she’s a well-loved actress who appeared in not just one, but two Best Picture nominees this year (she costarred in “Her”). She’s also the only actress on this list who has yet to win an Oscar (this is her fifth nomination), a piece of trivia that actually might help her if some voters follow the impulse to honor a hitherto un-awarded actress. Will Sydney and her ever-plunging necklines be able to distract the Academy long enough to steal the prize?
1. Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”Blanchett has been the frontrunner for this award ever since “Jasmine” premiered way back in August, and her momentum has somehow (miraculously) remained unflagged. She’s been getting rave reviews for months, she won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, the Critics’ Choice and the SAG Award, and most prognosticators have her as their #1 pick for the trophy (including us). But don’t start sending her congratulatory gift baskets just yet. What once seemed a sure thing now feels just the tiniest bit shakier. The only thing that might keep her from winning? The allegations that have recently resurfaced accusing “Jasmine” director Woody Allen of molesting his adopted daughter twenty years ago. In an ideal world, this would have absolutely no bearing on Blanchett’s Oscar chances. But could Academy members fear that a vote for Blanchett would be seen as a vote in favor of an (alleged) child molester? The Academy has been known to shy away from controversy before. (In 2005, frontrunner “Brokeback Mountain” lost out on the top prize to “Crash” because Academy members didn’t want to be seen voting for a quote-gay-movie-end-quote.) On the other hand, voters didn’t have a problem giving Roman Polanski (a convicted child molester) a Best Director trophy in 2003 for “The Pianist” (although his film ultimately lost out to “Chicago” for Best Picture). Hopefully, those who would have voted for Blanchett a month ago would still cast a vote for her today. But if people are nervous, it’s possible that they might instead cast a vote for the only woman in the category who doesn’t have an Oscar yet, paving the way for an Adams win. Unlikely...but still possible.
Who do you think will win Best Actress? Tweet us @Stagebuddy to announce your pick!
