The 86th Annual Academy Awards are fast approaching, which means it's time to start making our predictions for who will be taking home the shiny gold man. Before the ceremony is broadcast on Sunday, March 2nd (you can watch the telecast on ABC starting at 8pm ET), we'll be examining every major category and ranking each nominee on their likelihood to hear their name called. Today’s category: Best Actor!
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
5. Christian Bale, "American Hustle"You know you have a killer group of contestants when an actor as exciting and dynamic as Christian Bale is coming in last. As Irving Rosenfeld, the two-bit con man embroiled in an FBI sting operation, Bale delivered a vanity-free performance, compete with a pot belly and a truly heinous combover -- but it was also a surprisingly sympathetic portrayal that had audiences rooting for the crooked criminal to get away with it. "Hustle" may have been one of 2013's most-loved films, but unfortunately the field is so overstuffed with talent this year (just look at the actors who didn't make the cut: Tom Hanks for "Captain Phillips", Robert Redford for "All Is Lost", Joaquin Phoenix for "Her", Oscar Isaac for "Inside Llewyn Davis", Michael B. Jordan for "Fruitvale Station") that Bale doesn't stand a chance.
4. Bruce Dern, "Nebraska"Despite having been a reliable presence in Hollywood for over five decades, this is only Dern's second Oscar nomination, after a Supporting Actor nod for 1978's "Coming Home". It's gratifying to see this beloved character actor finally enjoying some leading man attention, even this late in the game. (At 77, if he won, he would be the oldest Best Actor winner in history, just edging out Henry Fonda who was 76 when he won for "On Golden Pond" in 1981.) As the stubbornly senile Woody, Dern delivered a performance far more subtle than at least three of the contenders on this list, and sadly that will probably work against him.
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Wolf Of Wall Street"Scorsese's latest crime epic may have divided critics and audiences, but pretty much everyone was impressed by DiCaprio's maniacally unhinged turn as stock broker/drug addict/megalomaniac Jordan Belfort. His total commitment to bringing such a despicable character to vibrant life resulted in one of the most memorable characters on screen in 2013, whether you loved him or hated him. A recent campaigning push for DiCaprio has given way to rumblings that the actor might pull a dark horse upset, but it's likely a little too late in the game for him to overtake either of the men in the first two slots, who have been frontrunners in the category since early in the season. It's surprising to realize that, as the most famous actor of his generation, DiCaprio has yet to take home an Oscar...but he'll just have to wait a little longer.
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor, "12 Years A Slave"Back when "12 Years" first premiered at the Telluride Film Festival in August of last year, Ejiofor immediately jumped to Best Actor frontrunner status for his quietly devastating performance as the wrongfully enslaved Solomon Northup. But then along came a little film starring an actor in the midst of a rousing comeback, and Ejiofor quickly fell to also-ran status. That doesn't mean this category is a foregone conclusion like, say, the Best Actress race. Most industry professionals harbor a profound respect for "12 Years", and while an Ejiofor win would be surprising, it certainly wouldn't be the most shocking upset in Oscar history.
1. Matthew McConaughey, "Dallas Buyers Club"There's no stopping the McConaissance. Some Oscar nominees find their chances hurt by other films they have in theaters during awards season - just look at Eddie Murphy, who went from frontrunner to biggest loser for his supporting role in "Dreamgirls" after the release of his infamous flop "Norbit". McConaughey has the opposite problem. His surprising career resurgence has yielded an embarrassment of riches, between his comeback roles in 2012's "Magic Mike" and "Mud", his hilarious supporting turn in "The Wolf Of Wall Street", his upcoming starring role in Christopher Nolan's "Interstellar" and his captivating turn on HBO's acclaimed new series "True Detective". And then there's "Dallas Buyers Club". Even without all the other terrific projects he's undertaken, McConaughey's work in that film alone would speak for itself. As Ronald Woodruff, a homophobic AIDS victim, McConaughey delivered a performance of such courage, honesty and compassion that it's almost impossible to believe it's the same actor who coasted through beefcake roles in films with titles like "Surfer, Dude" for most of the past decade. McConaughey checks practically every box on the list of things Academy members love: a compelling comeback (check!) from an actor delivering a Golden Globe/SAG/Critics' Choice Award-winning performance (check!) featuring a dramatic body transformation (check!) in a topical drama (check!) based on a true story (check!). This shouldn't belittle McConaughey's accomplishment -- he deserves the award and, barring any surprises, he'll have a new addition to his crowded mantle this weekend.
Who do you think will win Best Actor? Tweet us @Stagebuddy to announce your pick!
